Playoff Forecast:The AFC

Patriots

Colts

 Chargers

Steelers

 Jaguars

 Titans

Wild Card

Titans vs Chargers

Jaguars vs Steelers

The AFC once again proves why it is the toughtest confrence to compete in. Some players and coaches around the league believe that this year’s field is the toughest ever. They may have a point because there have never been a five seed that ever struck fear in opponents like the Jacksonville Jaguars. This team definitely have upset potential. The Jags’ two man running attack of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, the consistent play of David Garrrad, and a stingy defense propelled the team to an 11-5 record. The Jags ended the season 2nd in the league in rushing. While Garrad boast a 102.2 quarterback rating. The Jags’ d is’nt  too shabby either. They ranked in the top 10 in nearly every defensive category. Not bad for a team thatr playes in the shadow of the Colts.

Speaking of the Colts, everyone forgot that these guys are the regining Super Bowl Champs, and they went 13-3 for the year. Ironically, Coach Dungy wouldn’t have it any other way. Being under ther radar suits them. It really suits them because there is no pressure on the team. Its only motivation becaue right now, its all about New England and Jacksonville. However, injuries to key players are a huge caveat here. Marvin Harrison was injured for virtually the entire season with a knee injury. Dwight Freeny  is on injured reserve. The reports are that Harrison may be able to play in the divisonal round . The question is, how rusty will he be? The loss of Freeny is critical becaue no pass rusher=problems. The Titans, Chargers, and Jags are great in the backfield and they will exploit that weakness.

I am suprised that the Chargers made the playoffs this year. When AJ Smith dumped Schottenheimer for Norv Turner last Feb., I said ‘ Turner will ruin this team’. In the early half of the season, I was right. The Bolts, however, turned it up in the second half and the players may have bought into Turner’s system after all. I don’t know if it is the weakness of the AFC West, or maybe Norv Turner modified his coaching and bought into the players’ way of doing things. Whatever they are doing, they are doing it right.  The Chargers and the Colts are the true darkhorses of the playoffs.

To me, the Titans and the Steelers are the weakest links in the playoffs. Tennessee is one dimensional and Vince Young is inconstent and do not have quality receivers around him. With that said, he will move out of the pocket and scramble. Coach Jeff Fisher is basically using the possiblility of starting Kerry Collins as a ploy to throw off the Chargers’ D. We all know Vince will start. So, Fisher should stop the charade.

Pittsburgh may have won the AFC North but this is a weak team on defense. The Ravens exploited the hell out of the Steelers’ secondary on Sunday. If Troy Smith. Derek Mason, and Darling did that, what do you think Brady, Moss, Manning, Harrison, and Others will do?

For New England to continue their success, they must put 16-0 behind them quickly, and focus on 0-0. At the end of the season, the Patriots shouwd some dent’s in their armor. Primarly, their red zone defense. Offensively, I would like to see them run the ball more because opposing defenses will try and take away the pass.  Remember, four teams laid the blueprint for this, and would have won if they all didn’t choke at the end.   Now the stakes are higher, and there is no room for error for anyone.

 In the wild card round, I pick the Jags over the Steelers and the Chargers over the Titans.

Analysis of Colts/Saints

http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d8021cc27

 Honestly, I thought that the game was going to be an offensive explosion on both sides. Apparently that was not the case as the Colts straight thrashed the Saints to the tune of 41-10. However, I am not shocked at this score because the Saints’ defense is porous and easy to unravel.

Throughout the game, the Saints played mostly zone coverage and  man to man, which made it easy for the Colts to score. The play action pass from Manning to Harrison was a great example of what I am talking about. The duo exposed the crap out of the secondary on that particular play.

I’m inclined to agree with Deion when he said that Jason David was playing with his back to the side (ala Champ Bailey) and he paid for it. I’m all for a hungry, eager, player trying to find ways to improve BUT Jason David shoud try and be himself. What Champ Baily does only works for him. I can say the same thing about DeAngelo Hall, Chris McAllister, and others.

The Colts’  Cover 2 (AKA Tampa 2) defense was close to perfection last night. They took away the Saints’ only weapon-the run! Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister were held to 38 yards each. If the Colts keep this up, they will surpass the Patriots as Super Bowl Favorites.

Note to all teams playing Indianapolis this year: You all are better off running a speedy and powerful 3-4 scheme against this offense! If you dont run this defense, you will get thrashed like the Saints did.

RED ZONE’S SEASON FORECAST: AFC SOUTH

1.  Colts

While the question of can the Colts repeat remains to be seen, these guys should not have a problem clenching the AFC South. Once again, look for the offense to carry the defense.  Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison will be tough to stop as usual. Joseph Adai is a solid replacement for Dominic Rhodes at running back.

There are some questions  on defense. The biggest question is will  DE Dwight Freeny fall off after receiving a huge contract in the offseason. It will shock me if Freeny continues to work hard because there are so many players getting lazy once they get those large salaries. Another question is can this young unit pick up where guys such as Cato June left off I believe this imbalance won’t affect Indianapolis much during the regular season but they must make adjustments to the defense if they have any chance of repeating.

 2007 projected record  12-4

2.  Jaguars

I believe that Jacksonville is a solid team. The defense was ranked second in the league last year in total defense. I expect for the unit to continue its success.  The two headed rushing attack of Maurice Jones Drew and Fred Taylor should keep this team competive regardless of who is playing behind center. 

 2007 projected record 9-7

3.  Titans

To me, this team is third in the AFC South by default. If Vince Young can beat the Madden curse, the offense will be centered around him. While Eric Moulds is a solid receiver, he is a temporary solution to a permanent problem. This team must address the receiver position soon.

The Titans’ defense is looking to rebound from last year’s mess. They were last in the league in total defense, so there is nowhere to go but up. Tennessee should thank Houston for the obvious.

projected 2007 record  4-12

4.  Texans

With the first pick in the 2008 NFL draft, the Houston Texans select………

projected 2007 record 2-14

Hate Much?!

 

I didn’t hear a thing about the possiblility of Tony Dungy retiring until I read John Czarnecki’s article about Dungy’s options for his next phase of life. (http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7100410?MSNHPHMA)

According to Czarnecki, Dungy accomplished everything in the NFL-Winning a Super Bowl as a player (XIII) and Winning the Super Bowl as a coach (XLI).  Czarnecki even brought up Dungy’s age and his interests outside of football to support his claim of Dungy hinting at retirement.

To me, the article is baseless, passive-aggressive, b.s.! Hey John, why not man up and say what you really mean? You want  Tony Dungy to retire not because he accomplished everything and he’s getting up in age! You actually want Tony to retire because there is a possiblility that he may repeat history. Your logic here is that  Dungy spent 26 years as a coach in the NFL and should be ready to quit. To that I say, so what! Legendary Steelers coach Chuck Knoll spent 31 years as a coach in the league.

In the article, Dungy said this: “There are so many things I want to do with life, but I wouldn’t be coaching right now if I still didn’t enjoy it.”  Translation: “I’m not going anywhere anytime soon!”  The only thing greater than winning a Super Bowl is winning more Super Bowls,and that’s what Tony is shooting for here.

If Dungy  decides to step down as the head coach of the Colts, I bet there will be some teams out there like Detroit, Cleveland, New York Giants, and Carolina would love to have him on their sidelines. Even Tampa Bay, would love to make a wrong right with Dungy’s return.

Czarnecki says that Dungy will coach one more year and help Colts owner Jim Irsay open Lucas Oil Stadium. I say that Dungy will coach as long as he damn well please!

Nothing ‘free’ about Freeny: Colts re sign playmaking defensive end

The Indianapolis Colts, signed defensive stud Dwight Freeny yesterday with a 6 year/$72 million deal that includes  a $30 million signing bonus. This contract makes Freeny among the highest paid defensive players in the league, if not the highest.

With the offense secure, the Colts made it a priority to keep the centerpiece of thier defense intact.  In his five seasons with the Colts, Freeny recorded 56 1/2 sacks and forced 27 fumbles. Last season was the only time that he has been under double digits in sacks.

Let’s hope for the Colts’ sake that his play doesn’t decline when the bank account gets fatter.